UH RUNNING GAME VS. ND RUN DEFENSE
Notre Dame ranks a pedestrian 63rd nationally in defending the run, surrendering 142.67 yards per game, but Hawaii’s ground game is 107th, averaging just 99.31 yards. No Warrior running back this year has had a plus 85-yard rushing effort. Top rushers Daniel Libre (431 yards, 4.4 yards per carry) and Kealoha Pilares (281, 5.2) can be effective in spots, but overall the Warrior ground game hasn’t been a significant threat, ranking nine spots behind the often maligned Notre Dame running attack. Pilares (5-11, 190) has recovered from a foot injury and is a threat as a receiver as well with 26 catches.
Advantage: Even
UH PASSING GAME VS. ND PASS DEFENSE
The Hawaii passing game accounts for 245.54 yards per contest. However, the Warriors also allowed a national-high 49 sacks in 13 games. (Notre Dame set the NCAA record last year with 58 in 12 games.) The Irish registered only 18 sacks this season, led by 3.5 apiece by Pat Kuntz and Harrison Smith. QB Greg Alexander spreads the ball to a variety of receivers, with Michael Washington (56 catches), Greg Salas (50), Aaron Bain (44) the primary targets. Malcolm Lane, averaging 18.8 yards on 31 receptions, is the deep threat. Notre Dame’s depth against the multi-wideout attack took a bit of a hit with the absence of Gary Gray for personal reasons. The Irish were 18th nationally in pass efficiency defense, their highest ranking in any major category on offense or defense.
Advantage: Notre Dame
ND RUNNING GAME VS. UH RUN DEFENSE
The Irish averaged a measly 62.83 yards rushing in their six losses. Hawaii could be a slightly easier mark, as it surrenders 148 yards per game (73rd in the nation) and 4.0 per carry. How well the Irish run the ball is often the most pivotal factor, along with turnovers, in all their results this season. The Warriors start nine seniors and two juniors on defense. Their two interior tackles, Keala Watson and Joshua Leonard, are both 6-3 and they are 320 and 305 pounds, respectively, so there is ample girth to plug the middle. End David Veikune (6-3, 265) has been a playmaker with 16 tackles for loss and four forced fumbles, earning team MVP honors.
Advantage: Even
ND PASSING GAME VS. UH PASS DEFENSE
Hawaii is a middling 64th in pass-efficiency defense and gives up 203.8 yards per game through the air. Notre Dame has had only sporadic success throwing the ball in the second half of the year, but the return of Michael Floyd, who was shelved against Navy, Syracuse and USC, to the lineup should help considerably. The Warriors do rank 21st nationally with 34 sacks, but if Jimmy Clausen can get protection, he should have some openings to work with. Slightly overlooked is the fact that the 20 sacks Notre Dame yielded this year are the fewest since surrendering the same number in 2000 during an 11-game regular season in which they finished 9-2.
Advantage: Even
SPECIAL TEAMS
Warrior kicker Dan Kelly has made 10 of 20 field-goal tries, just 2 of 8 beyond 40 yards, and he has had three kicks blocked. He has made only two of his last seven attempts, including misses from 26, 27, 33 and 38 yards. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s Brandon Walker converted 13 of his last 17 field-goal attempts. Lane and Ryan Mouton do have single kickoff returns of 91 and 90 yards, respectively, but Hawaii averages well under 20 yards otherwise – and it is also last nationally in punt returns (2.0). The Irish haven’t excelled on returns, either, but their coverage units have been stellar. Despite having only one touchback, Notre Dame finished No. 1 nationally in kick return yardage defense (16.17). The punting data is virtually identical. Hawaii’s Tim Grasso averaged 40.7 yards and placed 18 inside the 20 while getting one blocked. Notre Dame’s Eric Maust averaged 40.8 yards, put 15 inside the 20 and had two blocked.
Advantage: Notre Dame
COACHING
Charlie Weis has received his stay of execution for 2009, but still has a weary look about him as he battles both heavy scrutiny and an obliterated knee (he will have surgery on his right knee on Dec. 29, and then the left one, which was shattered in the Sept. 13 Michigan game, at a later date). Former defensive coordinator Greg McMackin has been adequate in taking over for June Jones, who led the Warriors to an unbeaten regular season in 2007 before leaving for SMU.
Advantage: Even
INTANGIBLES
Hawaii, 5-2 at home this season, doesn’t need to travel and isn’t under nearly as much pressure to win as the struggling Irish, who also have a 15-year bowl drought hanging over their heads like an albatross. The Warriors were playing their best football in the last four games, while the Irish were playing their worst. Notre Dame will either be highly driven, or enjoy the tropical vacation and mail in the game. Which version will we see? The Irish do need a win far more than Hawaii does, and that can’t be underestimated.
Advantage: Hawaii
ANALYSIS
The teams are quite similar. Both rely heavily on the pass. Both have been alarmingly turnover-prone. Hawaii has lost 14 fumbles and thrown 21 interceptions, and its 35 total turnovers rank 117th out of 119 teams. Notre Dame was 102nd with 28 turnovers – 22 of them coming in six road games. Hawaii also blew double-digit leads in home losses to San Jose State (20-17 after leading 17-7) and Cincinnati (29-24 after leading 24-10). Whichever team can establish some semblance of a ground game and avoid the turnover plague will likely come out on top. The X-factor will be who wants it more. Hawaii wants to win this game, but Notre Dame really needs to – similar to the Michigan contest this year after a 3-9 season and barely surviving the opener against San Diego State. The Irish are backed into a corner again, and they traditionally have responded well in such situations.
PREDICTIONS
Todd Burlage: Hawaii 24, Notre Dame 21
John Haynsworth: Notre Dame 27, Hawaii 24
Ryan O’Leary: Notre Dame 27, Hawaii 17
Lou Somogyi: Notre Dame 26, Hawaii 20
